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研究 Weathering Volatility

Big Data on the Financial Ups and Downs of U.S. Individuals

In this inaugural report, 12bet官方研究所的研究人员分析了12bet官方的专有数据 & Co. 确定收入和消费在每月和每年的基础上如何波动.

为了得出美国学生收入和支出波动的结论.S. 就个人而言,我们的发现可以总结为三个关键点……

Finding One: 个人经历了高水平的收入波动和高水平的消费波动.

按月计算,波动性甚至比按年计算还要大. 最高收入者在收入和消费方面经历的波动与最低收入者一样多. 月度波动的一些驱动因素包括有五个星期五的月份, when employees may be paid three times instead of two, tax bills and refunds, and the year-end shopping season.

Finding Two: 收入 and consumption changes did not move in tandem; there was only a slightly positive correlation between changes in income and changes in consumption between 2013 and 2014. 三个行为分类描述了收入和消费变化之间的联系.

收入 and consumption changes did not move in tandem; there was only a slightly positive correlation between changes in income and changes in consumption between 2013 and 2014. 三个行为分类描述了收入和消费变化之间的联系.

Finding Three: 典型的个人没有足够的财务缓冲来抵御我们在数据中观察到的收入和消费波动的程度.

典型的个人没有足够的财务缓冲来抵御我们在数据中观察到的收入和消费波动的程度.

典型的家庭没有足够的流动储蓄,在发生重大灾难时可以立即使用, 与收入损失同时发生的意外费用. 虽然消费金融领域的许多人长期以来一直建议消费者保持应急基金, 我们对收入和消费波动的研究表明,对于整个收入范围的个人来说,财务缓冲是一个比通常理解的更重要的考虑因素. 我们发现,不仅收入和消费的波动性高, 但收入和消费的变化也没有同步进行. 这就造成了一种风险,即人们可能会经历收入的负波动,同时他们也会遭受巨大的损失, potentially unexpected, 费用. Based on our findings, 我们估计一个典型的中等收入家庭大约需要4美元,800美元的流动资产——大约是税后年收入的14%——能够维持观察到的每月收入和支出的波动,但他们只有3美元,000. Required levels of liquid assets, 然而, were largely unavailable to most individuals across quintiles, except top earners.

Conclusion

We conclude from these early findings that, given how noisy and unpredictable financial lives are, 大多数人将受益于创新的工具,以更好地理解和管理他们的底线. 这些工具可以包括分析平台,帮助人们跟踪他们的收入和支出模式以及来源, 级, and timing of fluctuations in income and consumption. In addition, financial service providers, 雇主和政策制定者可以帮助个人减少和管理波动性, better match income and consumption changes, or put these fluctuations to good use to help them save money. Potential solutions include new insurance and credit products to help smooth income and spending; technical solutions, such as making deposited funds more immediately available to banking customers; and products or automated transfers that allow people to save during naturally occurring upswings in income, such as on five-Friday months and tax refund season.

作者

Diana Farrell

Founding and Former President & 首席执行官

Fiona Greig

Former Co-President